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Bullish atmosphere rises, non-ferrous metal prices
Recently, the macro optimistic news continued to boost the market bull atmosphere to climb, and the price of non-ferrous metals continued to rise.

Following the previous week's easing of the euro area as scheduled, last week's US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in December also promised to "release water", and global liquidity remained loose. On the other hand, the United States began to launch vaccines, and the United States became the sixth country to approve Pfizer and biontech's new crown vaccines after the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and other countries. The news of the launch of the vaccine has given the market a shot in the arm.

At the macro level, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States exceeded expectations again. In addition, the U.S. stimulus bill made progress, and the US dollar index fell further, falling below the 90 mark, supporting the price of nonferrous metals. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution in December maintained a loose tone, and global liquidity did not shrink marginally. Market trading expected global economic recovery and inflation recovery next year, and crude oil prices were also holding in the near future Continue to rise, the overall support for the metal prices.

Copper has a strong financial attribute, and the fall of US dollar has a greater impact on it. In terms of supply, copper concentrate TC remained below $50 / T, while the long-term processing fee was set at $59.5/ton and 5.95 cents / pound, which was still a historical low, but slightly higher than the spot processing fee, and the ore end rebounded slightly, and the overall situation was still tight; the import volume of scrap copper was still small under the new regulations, and the supply recovery was slow; the refined copper supply was relatively abundant, and the import and output remained at a high level.

In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises in November increased by 2% compared with that of the previous month, and the demand was improved but not significant. At present, export orders continue to be high, but European countries have entered a strict blockade period, which may have an impact on overseas demand.

Generally speaking, the medium-term support of copper price is still in place, but the short-term rise is too fast, and the kinetic energy of further rise is weakened. It is expected that the high-level oscillation is expected, and the overall thinking of callback and long-term is still the thinking.

It is understood that Chalco was mainly stimulated by the news that Rusal or the US sanctions again, but Rusal later issued a statement on its official website to deny it. At present, the loose funds and low inventory level are still strong support. According to the data, as of December 17, the domestic social aluminum ingot inventory was 589000 tons, which was 7000 tons lower than last week, and the market accumulation was expected to weaken. However, the aluminum production profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum plant is still at a high level, and the aluminum plant is willing to put into production. In November 2020, China's electrolytic aluminum output is 3.163 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 7.77%, and the supply pressure is still there.

The downstream consumption is stable and weak, the operating rate of aluminum foil processing enterprises is relatively stable, and the operating rate of aluminum strip and aluminum profile processing enterprises has declined slightly, mainly due to the weakening of environmental protection production restriction and cold weather demand. But at present, the orders of downstream enterprises are basically full in December, and the probability of large accumulation is small. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will be dominated by strong oscillation in the short term. However, considering that the current price is close to the new high in the year and the overall increase of aluminum price is limited, attention should be paid to the impact of Rusal events on the disk.

Lead is still a kind with weak fundamentals in nonferrous metals. The delivery volume of 2012 contract reached 20000 tons, and the volume of futures warehouse receipt has increased to 49000 tons. With the end of delivery, short-term bad luck was released, and the drop of US dollar boosted lead price. However, the domestic renewable lead capacity continues to increase, the primary lead operating rate is also at a high level, and the domestic lead ingot inventory will continue to increase. In the long run, lead ore supply and the new capacity of renewable lead will remain loose, and the growth space of lead demand is limited, and the supply side surplus pattern will continue.
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