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The law of nonferrous metals rising
First, look at the current stage. The core of inflation trading stage is precious metals, and the core of demand driven stage is industrial metals.
In fact, from the perspective of futures prices, in each macroeconomic cycle, nonferrous metals prices have two rounds of rising period.
In the first round, money began to release water and inflation expectations increased, which first stimulated a sharp rebound in futures prices;
In the second round, the economy began to recover, and the expected increase in downstream demand drove up prices.
Take copper futures as an example. From March to June this year, the rise of copper futures was mainly stimulated by the release of water by the Federal Reserve. In less than four months, the price of copper rose by nearly 50%; since October this year, the rise of copper futures was driven by economic recovery and rising demand expectations, with a cumulative increase of about 20% since October.
From the performance of related sectors, in the inflation trading stage, gold and silver stocks performed better, while the futures prices of other industrial metals rose sharply, but the stock prices were flat;
In the demand driven stage, gold and silver stagnated or even fell, while industrial metals futures not only continued to rise sharply, but also showed obvious performance in stock prices.
Second, we should find varieties with better fundamentals in each stage, especially in the demand driven stage. We should find varieties with better comprehensive supply and demand and inventory fundamentals. The better the fundamentals, the greater the elasticity of the plate.
For example, in this wave of demand driven stage, the core rising varieties are copper, aluminum and cobalt lithium new energy metals.
On the one hand, the inventory of copper and aluminum is at the bottom of recent years, on the other hand, the demand continues to benefit from the high outlook of home appliances, automobile, consumer electronics and other industries.
New energy metals such as cobalt and lithium, not to mention, are mainly driven by the demand for new energy vehicles.
Third, in the same sector, to find the most beneficial companies, such as the output per unit market value, production capacity or reserves, including whether there is an expansion expectation, these are the core factors that will lead to the rise of relevant stocks.
For example, the western mining industry led the rise this time, which is mainly due to the fact that the copper production capacity of the western mining industry will reach 179000 tons after it is put into operation in 2020, with a significant increase of 265% year-on-year. In the aluminum plate, Shenhuo shares and Yunan aluminum shares, which have outstanding performance, will also expand production by 50% and 110% this year.
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